South Tampa Real Estate Market Analysis for 2011

Greetings All!

My name is Domingo Quintero and I have been serving the South Tampa real estate market as a Realtor for over 12 years now.  Ever since the market readjusted beginning in 2007, the question I have been asked most frequently over the last four years is "how is the market doing?".   It was then I had decided to put together a comprehensive spreadsheet using the MLS data to come up with a TRUE market analysis of the different types of properties in South Tampa.  Attached are these results.I am proud to share with you the results for 2011.  Enjoy!

I have attached the latest annual status report of real estate in South Tampa.  It is designed to give you an insight to the general trends of different types of properties (houses, townhomes, and condos) in the nine general South Tampa neighborhoods.

The analysis compares activity and pricing between this past year (2011) with 2010 and 2009.

This is a GENERAL analysis of trends of your  property in your area and where the market is going and what properties are selling per square foot.  Remember that other factors such as: age of home, location within a neighborhood, upgrades, if it is on the water, if it is a distressed sale, etc. could impact the value of property in your area greatly and that this is to primarily evaluate TRENDS.  Nevertheless, many of you may be curious just to see where your property lies in the mix!

Looking past the numbers, here are a three points of what we can discern with the overall impact of short sales & foreclosures (hereafter referred to as distressed sales):

1.  Overall sales of ALL types of properties (houses, townhomes, and condos) is UP in most neighborhoods!  Faster processing times by short sale lenders and foreclosed homes, continued favorable interest  rates, and the general recovery of the market all play a role in the growth of sales.  Since 2009, sales for houses are up 22%, townhomes 30% and condos 67%. 

The data shows that the majority (80%) of the increased sales growth in South Tampa  is due to the absorption of lingering distressed properties.  The data shows 825 distressed properties closed in 2011 vs. 622 sales in 2010 and 441 sales in 2009. It is important to note though that even without the sales of distressed properties, regular sales still maintained constant levels from 2009 through 2011; in other words people are not just buying distressed properties, but regular sales as well.

It is also important to note the growth of the number of new homes built in South Tampa.

• In 2009, there were 19 new home sales
• In 2010, there were 38 new home sales
• In 2011, there were 50 new home sales

There are also 20 new houses under contract awaiting completion to close and another 26 that are currently in various stages of construction awaiting buyers. Bear in mind that data only reflects MLS data and not custom homes that don’t appear in MLS so these numbers are lower than actual.  The significance is that the number of new home sales has more than doubled since 2009 as this shows a strengthening of the South Tampa housing market.

2.  Overall data shows that sale prices have dropped 7% since 2010 and 14% since 2009.  How can this be with increased sales throughout the same period?

The answer is: short sales and bank owned foreclosures.  The dramatic increase number of closed transaction of distressed properties has led to a greater proportion of distressed sales to regular sales as seen below:

• 12% in 2008
• 30% in 2009
• 35% in 2010
• 41% in 2011

This has created two distinct and separate markets in every community in Florida if not the country.   When we peel away the distressed sales from regular sales, here is what we find in South Tampa:

            2011 -  average sale is $190 per square foot

            2010 – average sale is $181 per square foot

            2009 – average sale is $174 per square foot

So actually, the price per square foot of non-distressed sold properties increased 4.7% since 2010  and 8.4% since 2009.  This shows that even though the overall  values of homes has dropped since 2009 in South Tampa, values of non-distressed properties actually increased during the same period.

It is also important to note that the number of new distressed property listings in South Tampa peaked in 2010 with 820 new listings. This was up from 599 in 2009 and down to 641 in 2011. 

3.  Overall time on market for all properties is down. The number of average days dropped from 196 days in 2009 to 166 days in 2011.  What is also significant is when you look at strictly at short sales,  the average time for these properties has dropped 45 days on average showing that the bank processing time for short sales has improved dramatically since 2009.   In my experience, I would still expect to have to wait 3-5 months for processing short sales. 

DOWNTOWN/CHANNELSIDE condo update: The condo market was hit hard in the recession in this area.  I have since kept a timeline on the number of units that sold over the last two years to show the progress of the area. Below reflects units sold per public records as of 1/31/12:                                                                                      

1. Towers of Channelside – 258 of 258 (100% sold; Bank foreclosed and resold all units at new price point. Only 54% were sold as of January 2010)
2. The Place                      -  73 of 259 (29% sold; no change since January 2010. Investor bought the remaining unsold units are renting them out. Capacity is at 97%)
3. Ventana                        -  83 of 85 (98% sold; half of the remaining unsold units were auctioned off in 2010)
4. Grand Central               -  213 of 418 (51% sold; after 3 years of renting the unsold units, developer has begun to sell remaining units as the leases expire)
5. Slade                             -  80 of 309 (26% sold; property has exchanged hands several times. Sales should be resuming in 2012)
6. Skypoint                        -  386 of 386 (100% sold; this is the first one that sold out in 2010. 
7. The Element                  - 0 of 386 units (Sister building to Skypoint is 100% rented for now. They will eventually sell)
8. The Plaza (Harbor Island) - 130 of 145 units (90% sold. These were only 27% sold in mid 2010)

There has been a tremendous push to sell inventory over the last two years. This is expected to continue as more retail enters into the area (including a package or grocery store in Channelside where talks are in the works. There are still over 1,000 units to sell here.  Will take some time to flush the inventory out completely.  Perhaps 2-3 years in total.

The good news is that properties in South Tampa are more affordable since 2002-2003 and there are some deals to be had with short sales and foreclosures IF you have the patience.  With favorable interest rates and banks more willing to negotiate on short sales and bank owned properties, there are opportunities here!  I hope you find this analysis helpful and I welcome all feedback and thoughts!

PLEASE PASS THIS ALONG TO ANYONE INTERESTED and please keep me in mind for your real estate needs.

Sincerely, 

Domingo Quintero III, CRS, ABR

Keller Williams South Tampa

O - 813-258-8032/ F - 813-258-6452

  “Thank you for allowing me the opportunity to earn your business!”